Dean Chambers Has Reneged.

by David John Wellman
 
If I ever hear someone use the words “Republican” and “responsibility” in the same sentence, I will tell them the following story.
 
About two weeks before the election, someone finally made me aware of the existence of UnskewedPolls.com, the website of Dean Chambers, in which he adjusted the numbers of the major pollsters according to what he believed were the correct turnout demographics for 2012. This site was incredibly popular among conservatives during election season; it had tens of thousands of likes on Facebook, and was frequently mentioned by mainstream media outlets.
 
Upon examining his site and his processes, I sent Dean the following email:

Subj: A Proposition re: Polls.At 11:59pm EST on November 5th, I will take screenshots of the projected EV total for Mitt Romney at FiveThirtyEight, and the projected EV total for Mitt Romney at UnSkewedPolls. (At present these numbers are 242.5 and 359, respectively.) I will invite you and any interested third party to do the same, so that everything is kept honest.
 
For every electoral vote by which Nate Silver’s projection deviates from Romney’s actual projected EV total following the election, I will owe you twenty dollars, For every electoral vote by which YOUR projection deviates from Romney’s actual projected EV total following the election, you will owe me twenty dollars. The loser will pay the winner the difference.
 
Payment will be due at noon EST on November 7th, or when at least three major news outlets (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News, PBS) have projected a final electoral vote tally, whichever comes last.

 
Dean responded promptly. After holding forth a bit on Nate Silver’s silliness in assuming that an elector can be chopped in half, he stated the following:

As for the bet I can agree to that but have to stipulate, given how MANY different projections and analyses are on my site, that my OFFICIAL projection/prediction of the election will be the final revised version of this:http://www.unskewedpolls.com/…
 
The actual one that will be my final projection/prediction of the presidential race will be at this address:
 
http://www.unskewedpolls.com/…
 
That isn’t up yet but it will be.  I expect Nate Silver to be off on 2-3 states where Romney will unexpectedly win. At $20.00 per electoral vote, the possible upset states could cost you some money:
 
New Hampshire: $80
Pennsylvania: $400
Ohio: $360
Michigan: $320
Wisconsin: $200
Minnesota: $200
Oregon: $140
Colorado: $180
New Mexico: $100
Nevada: $120
 
The very accurate projection by the two U. of Colorado professors has Obama winning Nevada but Romney winning New Mexico and Minnesota and Colorado. Nate Silver could cost you $480 for those three states.
 
But I wouldn’t be surprised if Nate changes his predictions at the very last minute so they almost echo mine, assuming he wants to be accurate rather than try to predict Obama winning.

In subsequent emails we established that the loser would pay the winner via PayPal, and that he looked forward to taking my money.
 
As you may recall if you followed Dean’s site, his final official projection was that Romney would win 275 electoral votes; a far cry from his original 359, but quite close to Nate Silver’s 242.5. Did I hear an echo? Meanwhile, Nate Silver’s projection at 11:59 on election eve was 222.7. (This changed to 225.0 on election day.)
 
Romney, as we all know, ended up winning 206 electoral votes. This meant that Dean owed me over a thousand dollars. I sent a PayPal link for him to pay me.
 
Would it surprise anyone to learn that Dean refused to pay?
 
He tried to pretend that he never thought the wager was for real money. He also took the position that the bet we made is illegal because of online gambling laws, the kind that prevent online casino businesses from collecting money or running wagers as a third party, but do not prohibit private, social wagers, either on the federal level or in our respective home states. I told Dean this, and he responded by linking to several websites along the line of Yahoo! Answers that addressed completely different subjects. When that failed, he simply started repeating himself.
 
I consulted with my lawyer and confirmed that the bet we made is indeed legal. When I told Dean this, he countered that (a) he also had a lawyer, (b) he had advised Dean that the bet is illegal, and (c) she would arrest me if I tried to collect my winnings. (You read that correctly. Evidently, Dean’s lawyer had a sex change operation in the middle of our exchange.)
 
After a bit more back and forth, Dean finally emailed me the following:

This will be the last e-mail you get from me. Your only recourse left is to the scream from the mountaintops to anyone that will listen, that “Dean Chambers reneged on a bet over the presidential race he lost the bet and won’t pay.” Good luck with that.

Stepping up the game

This post was created for the Phoenix market.  I’d like to see who responds to it.  Responses will be posted here.  If I get enough responses, I’ll try other cities to see what else happens.

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original post

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php website fake post


Date: 2011-05-22, 10:24PM MST
Reply to: your anonymous craigslist address will appear here


 

This is an utterly fake post. Please, let me be clear, I am not offering any sort of work here. 

There is a PHP website, that needs tending to somewhere in this wide world. CSS is used on websites, and often jQuery is implemented as well. MySQL is a database that is free!

Photoshop is definitely a graphics program. Illustrator is fun for drawing pictures.

Web designers often use these tools.

It’s true that I don’t have any responsibility for a website, I am not hiring anyone, but I would like to see who responds to this ad.

Just to be clear, I will post your responses on idiots of craigslist. If you ask me to remove your response, I will, since it means you’ve read something here on craigslist and not just blindly responded to any post with key words of interest.

Woohoo! Let the idiots show themselves!

The Main Idiot

  • it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
  • Compensation: I am offering no pay whatsoever

PostingID: 2397069257

Free To Good Home—-means FREE (Craigslist IDIOTS)

From the main idiot [you go girl!]

original post:


Date: 2010-11-11, 9:29AM EST
Reply to: comm-msrxk-2054197508@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]


I am so sick of all the STUPID people on here! You got the Flippers, the Humaniacs, the BYBs, etc, etc, etc!
BUT……….all of a sudden there is a HUGE increase in “Free to Good Home……………$50 re-homing fee” WTF?!?!?!? What part of FREE do you not understand?!?! If you want to sell your dog or “adopt out” your pet or “re-home” your animal—then do it–but dang STOP with the free with re-home fee. It shows that you are an IDIOT.
ALSO—to the Morons that post “MUST GO TODAY——-only $200″—-you show what an absolute LOSER you are. You took an animal and when it is not convenient for you—you just toss it out in a day’s time—for $$$$$. Too bad your Parents didn’t sell you to some 3rd World “Farmer”.

  • Location: Craigslist IDIOTS
  • it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests

PostingID: 2054197508

Wasted Space….(blah blah blah)

Date: 2010-02-14, 1:36PM EST
Reply to: gigs-4shwc-1600490324@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]

You all who post these “hero” type ads, like you are doing your fellow artisans some favor….are just as bad as those that are asking for the free work…

There is an option for “No Pay” and “Pay”, you know how to click a button don’t you….you reap what you sow…let the universe handle those that misuse other people..

It’s a person’s choice to respond, or not respond, to work for free or not, and to read a post or not…. “PUT OUT MORE POSITIVE VIBES”

It’s “Negative” energy and taking up valuable space online for someone who IS offering legitimate and paying work..

That’s the sad part…devalues Craigslist more than it already is…

Let’s stop all the garbage online period!!

* it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
* Compensation: YOU WISH

PostingID: 1600490324

RE…..FREE…..FREE HAIR AND MAKEUP (SoHo)

Date: 2010-02-12, 8:28PM EST
Reply to: gigs-vpvxw-1598523410@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]

ATTENTION TO ALL MAKE UP AND HAIR PEOPLE……..
HEY PEOPLE DO A FAVOR TO YOURSELF AND TO THE FASHION INDUSTRY
STOP GOING TO TFF AND FREE JOBS ALL OVER THE PLACE NOW.
THE PHOTOGRAPHERS AND THE DESIGNERS ARE PLAYING A DIRTY GAME THAT THEY POCKET THE BUDGET,AND THEN TAKE ADVANTAGE PEOPLE,PROMISE A STUPIT CD WITH PICTURES,OR UPCOMING FUTURE WORK……DONT LET THEM FOOL YOU GUYS……..
EVEN IF YOU BUILD A BOOK WITH PICTURES(THE BEST OF THE BEST)THE AGENCIES WILL NOT HIRE UNLESS YOU KNOW SOMEBODY……
IM NOT SAY THAT YOU SHOULD STAY HOME AND DO NOTHING…..BUT AS LONG ARE PEOPLE PLAY THAT GAME,THAT INDUSTRY GETTING WORST……
MAYBE IF PEOPLE REALIZE SOON……PAY JOBS WILL START AGAIN…………

* it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
* Compensation: no pay

PostingID: 1598523410

REGARDING HIRING GRAPHIC DESIGNERS

Date: 2010-02-11, 12:02PM PST
Reply to: gigs-qrct9-1596513518@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]

Seriously… DONT HIRE US IF YOU CANT AFFORD US. PLEASE!.. WE ARE WORKING PROFESSIONALS THAT ALSO NEED TO EAT! IF WE TAKE A DAY TO DO YOUR DEED ITS OUR DAY AND OUR TIME THAT YOU ARE EATING AWAY.

AGAIN… If you need a design for ANYTHING… talk to your wallet first before talking to US.

ENOUGH SAID

* it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
* Compensation: no pay

PostingID: 1596513518

Hmmmm…… (Atlanta)

Date: 2010-02-10, 6:20PM EST
Reply to: gigs-aqkmf-1595302061@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]

OK…enough with the NO PAY…WORK FOR EXPOSURE….BARTER all of that.There is actually some people on here with some REAL skills, and if you seek out those people to make your project better, you are going to have to pay.No one in this time, and day can afford to work for free.I understand that there might be a LOT of people trying to do things on a shoe string, but at least pay people SOMETHING for their time and effort to make your dream/project look professional.I myself have invested a LOT of money into becoming very good in my craft as a Makeup Artist, and therefor I do expect to get payed, like EVERYONE else.
I think it’s wrong that people try to take advantage.And with people not wanting to pay Photographer’s, Film Makers, Stylist’s, Makeup Artist’s or whatever it may be, you are telling us that you are not respecting our craft.But yet you seek out our expertise.
So PLEASE people think about it next time when you put up a NO PAYMENT add, that you don’t want anyone to take advantage of you either.

P.S I’m sure that one of you NON paying people are gonna flag this as well…but you might as well make it your full time job then, as I AND my fellow hard working people are going to continue posting these till everyone put a STOP to the FREE labor…your time is OVER.

* Location: Atlanta
* it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
* Compensation: no pay

PostingID: 1595302061

flame the creeps-Census pays $13/hr (The City In the Center of the Universe)

Date: 2010-02-08, 12:27AM EST
Reply to: gigs-2ybgt-1590889373@craigslist.org [Errors when replying to ads?]

I’m re-imagining 6 laptops with win7 for $300 labor. That will take less than 2 hours of attention, but I have 25 years experience, and the computers are year old HP laptops.

$ No one should whore themselves, assuming they have experience, for less than $20/hr. I agree that we should support this section of CL with blog and ward off off-shore and cheapsters offering sub-minimum wage.

There are wholesome jobs out there, like the Dept of Commerce Census. Thank God there are jobs here, and we’re not stuck in a place like Michigan or Florida looking for a gig to pay the rent.

No need to reply, but please monitor the posts.

thx.

* Location: The City In the Center of the Universe
* it’s NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
* Compensation: no pay

PostingID: 1590889373